The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-01-09

NFP Friday morning

Bonds

Bonds tested a wave (V) target at 111^19 and bounced but has yet been able to clear the first hurdle to prove that a reversal up is starting at 112^18. While I still think this is ripe for a reversal up, I can’t rule out a test of lower targets while under 112^18. Next targets down if required at 110^28 to 110^24.

Late in [V]

Bulls need over 112^18

Crude Oil

There was a nice reaction to the 75.26 target on Wednesday but while above 72.73, I think it best to allow for another swing high.

Late in a lower high?

One more high needed?

Dollar Index

I’ve reconciled this count with that I have had on the Euro. Either wave iii is in or close and should be due for iv.

Due for a fourth

Euro

Assuming this is a [B] wave of a fourth that either bottoms out here for a higher low or will drop through this support to around 1.0201 for a new price extreme, both are valid [B] wave possibilities.

Working on iv

A good place for a [B

Gold

On further reflection, I’m switching back to the idea of a complex wave ii. First target for ii with this count is at 2709.80 but I wouldn’t be shocked if it extends higher.

Working on wave ii

Nearing first target

S&P 500 Futures

The last few days have been a little softer than I would like but I’m not quite ready to write off the bulls. If bears are in charge, the next major steps down should be 5859.00 and 5793.00. I still like the theme of buying into the inauguration, but the bullish trade is getting pretty crowded. It is late in the game. Be flexible.

Softer than bulls would prefer

Last few days have been soft