The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-01-28

Wednesday a big day with the FOMC and earnings

Bonds

At this point, I think I need to put the wave ii at the low from last week which implies get ready for ZB to push up with some force once it gets over 114^23 in a wave iii.

Should push up away from the moving averages

Over 114^23 should be bullish

Dollar Index

Possible that the correction is over in DX but need over 108.00 for confirmation.

A wave iv candidate

Euro

There has been a promising drop away from 1.0518 but until Euro drops under 1.0418, we can’t be certain that wave ‘v of (iii) down has started.

A wave iv candidate

Need lower for confirmation

Gold

Gold retraced much of the recent drop today again putting pressure on the wave ii hypothesis. We need gold under 2715.20 for confirmation that wave iii down has started.

Wave ii under pressure

Projected cycle high on Wednesday

S&P 500 Futures

My confidence in the high being set is waning but a lot can happen on Wednesday and Thursday starting with the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon followed by big tech earnings across Wednesday and Thursday. Be flexible. If at some point the S&P 500 futures fall under 5968.50, don’t be in a hurry to fight a drop.

The bounce is higher than I expected

I can’t force myself to be bullish