The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-02-06

NFP eve

Bonds

Bonds doing well correcting in time as ZB moves sideways just under 116^05. Allow for another day, maybe two for the consolidation after which ZB should push up through 116^05.

Looking good so far

Allow for another day or so of consolidation

Crude Oil

Crude did in fact make a minor new low on Thursday and thus should start a wave two bounce. First hurdle to overcome and thus confirmation that an upward correction is starting is at 71.55.

Looks like for the first impulse down is complete

71.55 the number to beat

Dollar Index

Not much to add to DX as it hugs 107.90. Lower is possible over the next day or two but I wouldn’t say required. Bulls want to see DX recover 107.90 and hold above it.

iv may be complete

Euro

Pretty much the same in the Euro. A small move down on Thursday but nothing special. As I said yesterday, wave iv may be complete against 1.0457 but need lower for confirmation, namely a drop under 1.0334.

A wave iv candidate

Need lower for confirmation

Gold

Gold started out lower Thursday morning but recovered after testing old resistance turned support at 2857.80. Again, using the CCI on the daily chart, it looks like a low degree wave three is in or late in development which would allow for a consolidation and followed by try to reach 3000.

Could consolidate but expect higher

Expect higher

S&P 500 Futures

A pretty dull day on Thursday in the S&P 500 as it waited for Amazon earnings after the bell and the NFP on Friday morning. There was a little quick drop in the early afternoon that was recovered into the close. I can’t be enthusiastic about higher, but it might happen. Next little step up is 6124.35 followed by 6154.50.

Might try to push for 6154.50

Not enthusiastic about higher