The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-02-13

Bonds wake up

Bonds

Nice move up in bonds which nearly erased all the drop from the day before. I think we can say that the wave ii low has been set and should now be early in iii up.

Rose from the top of the wave ii support zone

Early in iii up

Crude Oil

CL made a minor new low today with a tiny poke under 70.60 before bouncing back to the initial retrace value to beat at 71.55. If it is a B wave low, which has problems in form, there would be a five wave move up for ‘C of (II).’ If a ‘V of (I), we should see three waves up for (II).

Bouncing in wave (II)

71.55 first number to beat

Dollar Index

Think we should assume 106.70 is tested at this point. Next cycle inflection is on the 18th.

Moving down in iv

Euro

Euro is up on Thursday, but I think anyone trading from the long side should be managing their positions.

Late in iv

Late in five up from February 10th low

Gold

Not much to say as gold continues its march to near 3000.

Trying to press to 3000

2989.90 next step up

S&P 500 Futures

I don’t have much to say. The pattern looks like trash to me, but I suppose conventional wisdom there will be a new high with a breakup out of this range.

Not convinced higher is required

6154.50 next overhead target