The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-02-19

SPX made a new high

Bonds

ZB trying to stay on plan by firming up a bit on Wednesday. Now to see if bulls can push ZB up over 115^00 for first confirmation that wave iii up is getting started.

A good place for support to hold

Over 115^00 positive

Crude Oil

CL reasonably on plan as it continues to bounce. Best if CL continues to push up away from 71.55.

Bounce likely to continue

Better when over 72.20

Dollar Index

As I have previously mentioned, it would look best if DX would at least retest the low from the 17th. The next cycle inflection is due on the 21st.

Need a minor new low to complete iv?

Euro

As I mentioned yesterday, it is conceivable that the wave iv is complete in the Euro and now working on a lower high.

Wave iv set?

Will see if a lower high forms

Gold

Gold is punching up to a new swing high as it pops over 2963.40. Next overhead target is 2989.90. Raise stops if long.

Will see if they can get close to the round number

Too aggressive to fade but late to chase

S&P 500 Futures

Not much to say. I can’t get behind being in a hurry to buy retraces and pushing higher but can’t short with any seriousness either.

Higher isn’t required

Can’t be excited about higher