The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-03-24
S&P 500 pushes to close an overhead gap
Bonds
ZB dropped back under the daily moving averages today but I’m not too worried about it at this point. It looks like the wave [IV] or iv became more complex. Support at 116^05 and 115^15. The intraday cycle is scheduled to bottom and turn up now. The fast daily cycle has a projected low on Wednesday.
Crude Oil
CL pushed up again today similar to the equity indices. Also similar to the equity indices, this makes a trader wonder if this advance will have legs to it. I’m still skeptical but we will see. Overhead resistance at 69.47 or 69.80. Would be bears don’t have much to work with till CL is back under 68.60.
Dollar Index
Good to see DX climbing up out of the typical wave ii retrace zone but probably too soon for bulls to do a victory lap until DX is above 104.90.
Euro
Certainly a promising drop in the Euro but bears need to see 1.0830 to fail as support before getting too excited.
Gold
Gold has been drifting lower for the last few days in what I’m assuming is a low degree fourth. A typical wave four support would be at 2997.40.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures largely behaved as expected on Monday after opening up on Sunday evening. The minor deviation from plan is that they pushed over my calculated resistance to fill the gap from March 7th. I’m inclined to see what bears can now do over the next couple of days provided ES drops under 5800.25. While above 5800.25, I can’t rule out a retest or minor high over that of the late day high of Monday. For form, I’m not certain though I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on the 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong, and this is just the first leg of a iv that should last approximately as long a wave ii which was about a month.
Here is the NQ intraday chart to illustrate what I have in the back of my mind for the pattern for a new low in iii.
