The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2026-09-30
Buying in the last minutes of the quarter
Bonds
The short-term forecast was for a bounce in bonds before moving lower to complete ‘(C) of [A] of iv’. Well, ZB was up on Friday but slipped back down today. I’m willing to give bulls a chance to do better as long as 124^07 holds as support. Under that, I have to assume that 123^10 or 122^26 will be tested.
Crude Oil
CL has bounced a bit but not clear if wave (I) down is complete or if this is the first part of a wave (ii) up.
Dollar Index
DX was up today but still in the tight range it has been in for the past week or so. Not clear to me a new low is required but possible.
Euro
Tricky situation in Euro as it isn’t clear that a new high is required. This could just be a topping process without a clear poke over 1.1257. Last week there was a try that fell just a few ticks short of retesting the prior high. A drop under 1.1107 could be an early warning that Euro is turning down.
Gold
GC may have put in a low degree impulse down at the low today. We will have to see how gold responds to 2662.10 an while under that level, a modest new low in an extension is possible.
S&P 500 Futures
There was a drop after the comments by Powell this afternoon but recovered late in the day. Tuesday and Friday are the heavy econ news days this week. I think there are enough squiggles for the market to rollover but think it is probably too aggressive to sell prior to sell while above 5773.00.
