Bonds
Bonds bounced last week from the 146^12 support last week to push up against possible wave (IV) resist at 150^00. I would like wave [III] to extend lower to around 142^20 or 141^21 before a better bounce in price and time in wave [IV]. Best for the wave (IV) thesis that ZB stay under 151^25.
Crude Oil
Nice drop in crude last week which looks like c of (a) of [ii] is underway. Minor support at 99.05 being tested now. Ideal that there is follow-through lower to at least 93.80 and preferably lower to attempt a tap of 79.95.
Dollar Index
I’ve equivocated several times recently struggling with the internal count of wave iii in DX. While possible that wave iii has been set, the last four weeks of DX holding up at the top of the range suggests that there can be another leg up before entering a wave iv correction. While above 97.60 and more importantly 96.70, I’m inclined to give it a chance to push for at least 99.80 and possibly 100.40. The weekly dominant cycle is up into May.
Euro
It is not clear that wave iii has been set. If it is, this bounce is likely the first part of a wave iv retrace. The other alternative is wave iii has not been set and this bounce is merely a lower degree fourth prior to the wave iii low. I favor a new low while under 1.1188 which was rejected last week. Would be bears need the Euro to drop away from 1.1075 and through 1.0956 to achieve a new low for wave iii.
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