Bonds
ZB gave back the gain of the week before last week. While not yet definitive, it is a promising start of a possible reversal down from a possible wave (iv). The next major inflection point in the cycle composite is early July.
Crude Oil
CL advanced last week to test next overhead resistance at 82.90. I still lean to this move being the first leg of a corrective move up, which would imply a retrace due relatively soon. Note that the adaptive CCI is nearing a zero line retest, a common inflection point.
Dollar Index
I’ve updated the weekly chart count to reflect what I have on the lower time frames by sliding over [IV] to the right to this low. Even in the worst case where this is a five down from the high late last year, which I’m not convinced is the case, there would be a pretty healthy bounce up to form a lower high. We need to see a recovery of 101.80 as the next step in creating a reversal, and over 102.70 even better.
Euro
Some rejection last week in the Euro at the test of the prior swing high, but not yet conclusive. I’ll feel a little better when Euro drops under 1.0993.
Gold
Gold surged up last week and promptly gave back the gain. Now to see if a lower high develops in the next week or two. Bears begin to get some traction if GC spends time under 2013.15.
S&P 500
SPX advanced last week but tripped a little on last Friday. I’m still on alert for a lower high to that of early February. The alternate would be SPX holding up through the earnings coming out over the next several weeks into the FOMC meeting early in May.
Russell 2000 Futures
I think it worth contrasting SPX above with the Russell 2000 which has not bounced much at all over that past month. Looks pretty weak to my eye as it can’t get over the minimum retrace resistance at 1827.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC finally drove up over 28550 and hence I suppose I have to have a very mild bias to higher to test 33200. I can’t say I enthusiastic about higher given the dominant cycle is cresting.