The Week Ahead: 2022-05-05
Can the equity markets now climb for a week or two prior to Nvidia earnings?
Bonds
While I can’t rule out the possibility of one more tiny low in bonds, with the rise last week, I think it best to assume the (b) wave low was set the week before and now in the early stages of (c) of [ii or b] up. The major hurdle in the short-term for bulls to clear is at 117^26.
Crude Oil
After the drop in crude last week, I have to throw in the towel on a retest of the April swing high and assume any bounce leads to a lower high. CL is overextended on lower time frames and is due for a bounce, I just think odds have moved to favor bears.
Dollar Index
I have been expecting a minor retrace in DX and that appears to be playing out now. Will see if DX bulls can defend the 104.40 area this week.
Euro
Last week I mentioned that it seemed likely that Euro would retest the 20 EMA on the weekly chart and did make a run at it. We could see another attempt this week to put pressure on it and the 1.0890 area just above.
Gold
I have been expecting a wave [IV] retrace in gold, similar in a way to the fourth wave idea in crude, but here gold is holding versus crude which failed to hold support. It will be a mild positive for gold bulls to recover 2330.00.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is on plan for a try at making a new swing high to finish off (c) of [b]. I do think we are seeing signs that the advance is running out of gas, but I think there is enough momentum to press for at least a retest of the high. You might say that oil traders are anticipating recession where that realization hasn’t hit the equity markets as of yet.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC futures lifted from where that had to, 57140, and moving back up into the recent range. I still think there is unfinished business up around 77740 to 79310.
