Bonds
ZB had a fairly strong bounce last week to test 141^21 but I think it fleeting. This is a good area for a price extreme for a wave [IV] though the [IV] can become more complex. An alternate could call this all of [IV]. If the [IV] becomes more complex, it may chop around before making a final thrust down in [V] of v of (i). If [IV] is complete, we should see a steady five wave sequence down to a new low. I lean to allowing [IV] to become a bit more complex before a final thrust for a low in August or September.
Crude Oil
Crude rejected 114.60 last week but the candle was still an up week. Still favor a lower high forming nearby and a push lower into August or even September before the next choppy bounce. Backing up a bit, from the wave count I’m using you can infer that I’m expecting a choppy correction over the next year or two before the next steady rise.
Dollar Index
DX bounced from the critical support at 103.80 last week which could result in a minor new high. I’m assuming this next cycle inflection is an inversion and results in net sideways to down into late August or early September.
Euro
There was a minor new low last week in Euro that could qualify for a wave (iii) low. Admittedly the location of the cyclically smoothed RSI is not the best for a low being set and could get a push for 1.0331 before a bounce.
Gold
I remain pretty bearish gold in the bigger picture, but I have been having doubts about lower in the short-term. Perhaps a 1-2-1-2 count will work where gold is due for a (C) of [II] bounce before dropping hard in [III]. Resist at 1840.60 and 1875.10.
S&P 500
SPX stalled at 3936 last week but held about half of the gain for the week. I’d like to see 3936 pushed through this week and further advance the following week to put the finishing touches on (a) of [b].
Bitcoin Futures
BTC has been weak, but I can’t see being bearish at this point. I’ve changed the degree labels on the chart though the expected path remains the same.