Bonds
I know I sound like a broken record, a dated metaphor, as I repeat myself again on the possibility of the bonds completing a fractal down from the 2020 high. I’m just not confident at this point looking any lower. Yes, the fastest dominant cycle has a projected low in November, but the other cycle is already turning up. Also, the Wave 59 9-5 study has an exhaustion signal on the candle from last week. Perhaps too aggressive to buy without some evidence such as recovering 124^27 but I think aggressive traders could start shopping for a low.
Crude Oil
Crude has fallen back from a shallow wave ii retrace level last week. Is that the end of wave ii? Possible but I’m a little skeptical. I think it best to give a more complex wave ii a chance to form while above 85.75.
Dollar Index
I think DX is due for a retrace, perhaps more in time than price, relatively soon. Said retrace may have already started but need under 111.85 for confirmation. Yes, I know on shorter time frames I’m looking for one more high, I just argue for being careful looking for much more at this point.
Euro
Similar story here in Euro as DX but inverted. I’m not sure a new swing low is needed. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it started forming a triangle that allows a correction more in time than price.
Gold
I would like one more new low in gold prior to moving into a wave (iv) retrace but if DX and bonds are close to reversing, it might not be able to make it.
S&P 500
I think it wise to look at the monthly chart here again for perspective. SPX has fallen through 3645 but is trying to bounce back to reclaim it. On one hand, I think a push lower to 3268 would be elegant and provide a good base for a bounce in November and perhaps December before pushing to a final low next year. The problem is that they had every reason to seriously break lower last week on the CPI but instead did a stick save. I don’t think we get any lower now unless the earnings this week turn out to be poor at which point they may resume the selling.
This as good as any place to mention that there are a couple of ‘crash’ windows to keep an eye on. One related to solar eclipses spans a couple of weeks and another that is lunar based targets the end of this week. A crash doesn’t have to occur here, but the serious crashes in the past did align in these windows.
Again, it disturbs me that they had everything lined up for a seriously bad Thursday and Friday last week but didn’t have follow-through. Hence, I think it best to allow a bounce in either a (c) of [b] like I discussed last week in the Russell 2000 or a wave (ii) of [c]. From a practical standpoint, they are similar at this stage, the real difference will be in projecting lows later.