Bonds
I’m open to either a higher low or new low in ZB in a couple of months. I have a soft spot for the latter but can’t say it is a sure thing. Not really expecting much of a continuation of the drop last week in this period between holidays.
Crude Oil
I’ve reconsidered where we are in the pattern in crude oil. On some reflection, I’m worried that we get more bounce or consolidation that my previous wave count could tolerate. I’m penciling the wave iii complete at the last low and thus now in a wave iv now. Some resist at 80.65 but I doubt it holds for long. 86.40 a better resistance target that may be tested next week.
Dollar Index
DX wasn’t able to recover 105.40 a couple of weeks ago and since has been back to leaking lower. I still expect a major low is near with the dominant cycle low projected in this area. I suppose there is a chance that the DX high has been set and the expected rebound up fails to result in a new swing high though I put that as low probability for now. We’ll see what it looks like in two or three months.
Euro
I’m also penciling in a wave [iv] late in development in Euro. Looks like we will see next resistance at 1.0802 or 1.0891 tested early next month.
Gold
A minor bias to higher to test 1845.80 while above 1803.10 though late in a wave (iv).
S&P 500
I’m thinking we get a net bounce up into next week. Resist to keep an eye on at 3927 and 3995 for a lower high.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC has been traveling sideways for over a month now. Bias remains lower but as I have mentioned previously, most of the damage has been done.