The Week Ahead: 2023-01-03
First week of the new year
Bonds
Bonds have been down two weeks so far after testing 132^25. I’m assuming that we are early in a wave (v) down. Perhaps a retest of 129^14 before pushing lower with some force in wave iii of (v) of [i].
Crude Oil
Crude is pausing against 80.65 but I think it likely to climb over and tap 86.40 to complete wave iv.
Dollar Index
I think there is a good chance for DX to attempt to retest he high from last year if not beat it by a bit over the next three or four months. The 103.35 support is holding so far but might poke under briefly if equities bounce a bit more this week. Dollar bulls need to recover 105.50 to feel good about wave [IV] being complete.
Euro
Euro is attempting to turn down from a minor lower high and thus wave [IV] could be complete. Need under 1.0536 as first confirmation of a reversal and start of wave [v] down.
Gold
GC is slowing against 1845.80 but need a drop back under 1803.10 to feel good about a wave (iv) being complete.
S&P 500
I’m thinking we see a net up this week in a bounce prior to turning down the rest of the month.
Bitcoin Futures
I still don’t have much insight at this time on BTC. I’m assuming lower is the path of least resistance but think most of the damage has already been done and thus may feel more net sideways for several more months.
Hi Bernie.
Probably not. See the daily and intraday charts I posted last night. I'm treating this drop as the first impulse down in wave v. CL dropped through the first supports of 74.90 and 74.40 today and looks to be trying to reach the next at 72.50. I'm thinking a bounce is due before long to form a higher low. Overall, when I made the comments on the weekly chart, I was thinking that crude would try to hold up while equities worked on a lower high, but it looks like crude is leading the way down.
-Tom
Crude has fallen to 75. Is the higher iv still in play?