The Week Ahead: 2023-01-08
First full week of the year
Bonds
Looking at the weekly chart, I’m not confident that we have seen the end of the wave (iv). 135^10 is the .382 retrace of the wave (ii) high to the low in wave (iii), a typical wave target.
Crude Oil
CL surprised me by falling last week. Technically that could be the end of wave iv but it is pretty aggressive. It wouldn’t be abnormal for wave iv to take longer in time or push a bit past 80.65 before rolling down in wave v.
Dollar Index
DX made an effort last week to climb out of the hole but failed to push up through 105.40 thus have to allow a minor new low. Should I now relent and say that the DX high was set in October, and it is all downhill from here for DX? I think that is premature though would be the alternate. Even if the alternate turns out to be the case, there should be a deep retrace up before DX begins the next major move down. If you tend to think the final high in DX is in, you probably should assume that the equity indices have bottomed out and that seems a bit aggressive to me.
Euro
Euro fell initially last week but held initial support at 1.0536 support and thus need to allow for another test of 1.0802 if not 1.0891.
Gold
Gold has certainly had a nice bounce up of over the last several months, but I think gold bugs may be a bit premature in their excitement. Both of the cycles on this chart are pointing towards a cycle high late this month or early next month after which the longer cycle turns down into last spring or early summer.
S&P 500
Primary thesis is that the S&P 500 is working on a lower high to the high from mid-December in the next week or so and will then press lower to eventually make a new low under that of October of last year. Resistance at 3927 and 3995.
Bitcoin Futures
I still don’t have much to add on BTC at this point. Could the low be in? Maybe but I don’t have a strong opinion.
Thx a lot for an update, may I ask to have a look on NG pls