Bonds
Last week was an indecisive candle that closed slightly above resistance at 129^14. This could easily be the late stages of a wave (iv) which doesn’t require a new swing high to complete.
Crude Oil
Strong recovery in crude last week dashes the hopes of aggressive bears that were working with an early end of wave iv. Now it looks that wave iv is becoming more complex which is pretty common.
Dollar Index
I have been stubborn with my hypothesis that the drop in DX has been a fourth wave which will result in a retest or new high to that of last October. To substantiate that view, I’ve added the adaptive CCI study to the top of the chart. Notice how DX spent something like 16 months above the zero line. That is a stereotypical wave three phenomenon. Now we have the first dip under zero, which often happens in a fourth wave. Yes, the decline has been deeper than is typical but the only hard rule for a fourth is that it can’t overlap wave one and this decline isn’t anywhere close to overlap with anything that can be thought of as wave one. Regardless of where you fall on the wave [iv] issue, at least a short-term bounce is due as the Wave 59 9-5 exhaustion study is ready to give a signal on this candle. First step is to recover 103.35.
Euro
Same situation as DX but inverted. I still think this is a wave [iv] very late in development. First step for a would-be bear is to force Euro under 1.0802.
Gold
Gold is coming up to an ideal cycle high at the end of this month or early next month, something that we will see more of on the next charts. Like DX, gold also will have a Wave 59 9-5 study exhaustion study on this candle.
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
I still prefer to see the December high as a (c) of [b] and the last couple weeks as a bounce that forms a lower high between now and the end of the month. The composite cycle peaks on the next FOMC meeting though left-hand translation, or put more simply the cycle ending early, is possible as one of the composite cycles is cresting now.
Dow Industrials
Same idea here in the Dow, but the advance from the October low has been stronger. A minor new high to that of December isn’t a problem if you treat the late December low as a fourth wave and now up in wave five to complete (c) of [b].
S&P 500
Either we see SPX form a lower high against the descending trend line and 3995 thus preserving the primary count of wave (c) of [b] being set late last year or the alternate comes to the fore where this is a wave (ii) of [c].
Bitcoin Futures
I think there is a fair chance that everything post July of last year is a wave (iv). If that is the case, typical wave (iv) retrace targets are at 22780 and 27060.