The Week Ahead: 2023-01-29
We hear from the Fed, BoE and ECB this week along with earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple
Bonds
ZB went into a holding pattern last week which is not really surprising considering the central bank news this week. I like a push lower, but we will see. Overhead resist at 132^25 and support at 129^14.
Crude Oil
Crude is late in the development of a wave iv. It is a slight positive for bears to be under 80.65. Next resist past 80.65 at 84.30.
Dollar Index
DX put in a doji candle last week just above support at 101.30. The doji candle, marking indecision, is not much of a shocker considering the news this week. As I have mentioned before, while this drop is deeper than I expected when shopping for a retrace back last October, it is the first drop into negative territory on the CCI since mid 2021 which is a characteristic of a fourth wave.
Euro
Same ideas as in DX above but the inverse. Either working on a wave [iv] or the first impulse up from a major low last year. Best for bears that Euro does not spend much time above 1.0950.
Gold
A prominent doji candle in gold last week as well. Looking good for a reversal or next considering the conjunction of cycle highs projected here.
S&P 500
SPX pushed up through the descending trend line last week to retest to prior highs from December. I’m sure that there are many that see this as something that means SPX has a green light for much high, but I don’t see it that way. Next group of resists at 4120 and 4146.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC futures slowing against 23150 last week. I’m penciling this in as late in a possible wave (iv). Next series of resistance for a wave (iv) at 25760 and 27245.
Wheat Futures
I’ve had another request to look at wheat. I’m putting the weekly chart here and will post a daily and perhaps an intraday chart on the Monday evening post. Wheat has a picture perfect five wave decline from the 2022 high into a poke under the 757.50 target last week. I think there is a good case for a pretty major low being set last week and ready for a bounce in (a) of [b]. First major resistance to clear is at 800.50.