Bonds
Bonds retested the December high last week leaving another candle that looks like a possible top. Bears need ZB under 129^14 to get a retrace or more started.
Crude Oil
Impressive drop in CL last week as it is now back at the lower end of the range. I wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce but expect an eventual push under the December low.
Dollar Index
DX awakens after testing the lower supports at 101.30 and 100.60. I prefer this low as wave [iv] but even if you think the low was the first impulse down, you should expect a pretty impressive bounce. Minor resist at 103.50 but probably only a speed bump on the way toward 106.30. This rise in DX likely means that the equity rally is on thin ice.
Euro
With DX rising, fair to assume Euro should fall and that is what we are seeing. Next step for bears is to force Euro under 1.0796.
Gold
Gold fell pretty hard last week after testing resistance at 1976.90. Overall expect lower into end of March and think it has a good chance to continue lower into late spring or early summer.
S&P 500
SPX poked just past 4182 before falling back under prior resistance at 4146 on a week with the FOMC and corporate earnings. I remain highly skeptical that this rise from October is anything but a bear market bounce. That doesn’t mean it can’t go higher but I do think there is some timing here that implies a reversal down nearby or will have to wait at least two weeks for the next opportunity of a reversal. I’m open to a minor new high but should be pretty late in the formation of the fractal up from the December low.
Bitcoin Futures
Like gold or euro, I think BTC is late in forming a fourth wave and due for another low. A negative for BTC to spend time back under 23150.