Bonds
ZB fell again last week but recovered to the weekly open. Considering the oversold RSI it is reasonable to expect a week or three of consolidation. An aggressive bond bull could buy and hope that the higher low to the low from last year holds. I do think the easy part of the bond decline is behind us though prefer to at least retest the October low before looking for a serious reversal.
Crude Oil
CL has been stuck in a range for twelve weeks now. The fastest of the dominant cycles implies lower into late April.
Dollar Index
I’ve been looking for a modest retrace or consolidation in DX and it appears to be taking place now. Prefer it to just be a way to gather energy to grind up through 105.53 and 106.45 for at least a deep retrace up if not an eventual new high in summer or autumn later this year.
Euro
Same story in Euro as DX but inverted. Expecting a minor pause before breaking under 1.0563 on the way to 1.0314 or 1.0162 at a minimum.
Gold
So far the hypothesis of moving down from a wave (iv) of a large ending diagonal has been working out well though there has been a bounce last week. That could be an ‘a of (v)’ in the ending diagonal though I prefer one more low to complete the ‘a’ wave. As a reminder, each of the major legs of an ending diagonal should be a three wave move, hence looking for a three wave drop from the February high down to retest or best the low from late last year.
S&P 500
SPX poked a new low last week before a pretty strong recovery on last Thursday and Friday. Goal for bears is to set a lower high to the February high this week or next. I’d rather the gap remain unfilled but not a serious requirement.
As an adjunct to the S&P 500 chart, let us take a look at two of the major components, Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft has been declining from 273.90 resist which corresponds to a possible cycle inflection. We will see if that high can hold in the next couple of weeks.
As to Apple, if there were to be a poke past the February high, it would be here as support at 143.30 held last week and have yet to test resistance at 161.30. The dominant cycle looks positioned to take prices lower into May.
Bitcoin Futures
I like how 25760 is holding as resistance and now have some red candles. If wave (iv) is set, should see a steady grind lower over the next several months till a new swing low under that of last year is achieved.