Bonds
Sharp bounce in bonds last week, mainly late in the week in a bit of flight to safety on the SVB news. I remain skeptical that this rise is more than a blip on the way to an eventual retest of the low from last year though I suppose an alternative wave count that I entertained last year that would call the low last year a completed ‘v of (v) of [i]’ and now in the early stages of wave [ii] could technically be fighting for viability.
Crude Oil
Little to say in crude as the consolidation still builds. Expecting an eventual break to a new low to complete ‘v of (c) of [ii]’.
Dollar Index
Waiting for DX to finish a minor consolidation before breaking up through 105.53 and 106.45. Support at 103.67 and 102.75.
Euro
Same idea here as in DX above but inverted. Resistance at 1.0796 and 1.0875.
Gold
Gold perky and probably working on wave ‘b of (v) of ending diagonal [c]. Overhead resistance at 1910.30 and 1924.65.
S&P 500
Nice move down in the S&P 500 after briefly pushing up to try to fill the overhead gap. I wouldn’t be shocked by a minor bounce early in the week that could test 3909 or 3943 before leaking lower toward 3803 and the low from late December.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC is soft as it fills a gap left in early January. I’m penciling this in as early in the move down out of a wave (iv) bounce and thus expect an eventual retest at a minimum of the low from last November.