Bonds
Nice move down in bonds last week which makes it look like we are moving down from a wave (iv) in the early stages of wave (v). I favor bonds drifting lower into earl June but will pay attention to possible timing on the second week in March as a short-term low.
Crude Oil
Crude is currently a problem child with the recovery last week of most of the drop from the week before. Not clear if this is a deep low degree wave two in a developing wave v or if wave iv is not yet completed.
Dollar Index
DX is doing well though I wonder if it rests for a bit against 104.23. Support at 102.50 if a small retrace kicks in.
Euro
Euro extended lower last week improving the odds that wave [iv] is complete and has now reversed lower in the early stages of wave [v]. That said, I would not be surprised by a small bounce up from nearby, perhaps 1.0595 before proceeding lower.
Gold
Gold also behaving well as it pushed down away from 1904.80 last week but like Euro, I wouldn’t be shocked by a short-term bounce from nearby before breaking lower. Next support at 1845.30.
S&P 500
I certainly welcome the softness in the S&P 500 last week but backing up a bit and looking at the weekly chart, it is probably still too early for bears to claim victory. It is possible that the market finds a way to hold up into early next month so as to align with the next major cycle inflections before rolling down with force. I favor the push lower having started but it wouldn’t hurt to have some more evidence of a reversal such as dropping down through 4030. Somewhat like what I have mentioned about Euro and gold, I’d like SPX to find a way a little lower but wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce before long at which point we see if another lower high can form.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC fell back under 23150 last week in what could be the start of a wave (v) down. Bears need to keep the pressure on though there will be market respiration, a normal back and forth, in the decline.