Bonds
I still favor a retest of the low from October of last year but acknowledge that I could be wrong and instead could be in the relatively early stages of a choppy wave [II] bounce. There is a composite cycle inflection in this area as ZB has been slowing against overhead resistance of 134^04 and 136^09. Next inflection is in early July and my base assumption is that there will be a decline into that inflection even if not a retest or new low.
Crude Oil
Small bounce in CL last week. I think most of the decline is likely done and now working on the last few squiggles to finish the form. Next major cycle inflection is late in April.
Dollar Index
DX up last week and thus attempting to form a higher low. Next step for DX bulls is to form a base above 102.70 and grind forward to 105.53. If this higher low holds, I don’t see this as good news for US equities. Note that this is taking place at a major inflection point in the cycle composite. Next major inflection point is in September.
Euro
Promising rejection of deep retrace levels by the Euro last week. Now to get a drop under 1.0750 for confirmation of a reversal that takes the Euro down to at least 1.0226.
Gold
Gold is attempting to turn back lower from the 2013.15 resistance. First confirmation of a reversal is dropping back below 1970.20.
S&P 500
Another form to consider with similar consequences to the [b] wave being set at early February high is a large [b] wave triangle that has been forming since the June low from last year. Expectation is for a drop out of the triangle, but SPX could bounce around and try for deeper retracements before pushing under 3803.
Bitcoin Futures
I’m not sure if this rise in BTC is a wave (iv) or (a), but it is having difficulty with the 28550 resistance. Over 28550 can lead to a push for 33200, whereas rejection can lead to a retest of the low.