Crude Oil
Let us start with crude oil since the news of the OPEC+ production cuts is moving futures on the Sunday open. The good news is that we did a good job of looking for a low two weeks ago. The bad news is that I was thinking a lower high which was viable till this news. Now what? I suppose bulls hope that the low two weeks ago was the wave (c) of [ii] low and now early in a wave [ii or c] advance. I think you have to discount a recession later this year or next if that is your primary count. I can’t see that as likely so need something else. What about an ending diagonal in (c)? This would imply a choppy advance for a month or two followed by a three wave decline into late summer or early autumn. I suggest that the current advance is likely near the end of '[A] of iv’ and that we should be prepared for an attempt to fill the gap and lower to around 72.80 before testing resist at 82.90 or perhaps higher to around 86.60 before dropping down into the 50 handle later this year.
Bonds
ZB is on plan moving down from a possible wave (iv). I do think the majority of the damage has been done in bonds but do want a retest or minor new low by July or August to complete the first impulse down from the 2020 high.
Dollar Index
DX is stabilizing against 101.80 and trying to base and recover 102.70. I see this as a higher low for (ii or b) for an advance up from this cycle inflection in (iii or c).
Euro
Same idea but the inverse in Euro. Here I’m looking for a lower high to form and move lower. Immediate resist at 1.0915 and 1.1005. Bears need a drop under 1.0750 to get the ball rolling.
Gold
So far have a couple of weeks of GC drifting down from 2025.40 which is similar to the drop in ZB. If DX also firms up, it should help gold drop under 1970.20 which then facilitates a move lower toward 1924.65.
S&P 500
The question in the S&P 500 now is the [b] wave high set at the high early in February or if it is still developing. I’m not giving up completely on a lower high, but it needs to happen soon or else I may have to allow for a rise up into mid-April. For this week, 4144 and perhaps 4195 are the areas to key off of.
Bitcoin Futures
Little to add to what I already said about BTC. Over 28550 can enable a quick push for 33200 but it is worth noting that this resistance has held for a couple of weeks now.
Russell 2000 Futures
So do you trust a triple bottom? Can’t say I do and think there will be an eventual drop through that ledge. The 38% retrace of the last swing is at 1827, the 62% is at 1907.