The Week Ahead: 2023-04-09
Bonds
ZB recovered the drop from the week before to again test 134^04 last week. With negative divergence on the cyclic smoothed RSI, at the top of the chart, I favor a turn lower relatively soon, as one of the cycles is at an inflection point. Next resistance past 134^04, if needed, is 136^09.
Crude Oil
Little movement in CL last week after the gap up as it formed a doji candle, which not exactly a reversal signal on its own, does indicate indecisiveness. I can’t rule out a push to test 82.90 but think it more likely to slip lower in an attempt to fill the gap.
Dollar Index
DX put in a promising candle last week as it fights for a higher low. If the low from last week sticks this week, I would think DX will work to climb into early May before much of a pause.
Euro
Same idea as DX above but the inverse. I will say that Euro had a stronger week than what I would have expected from looking at DX. Would be bears begin to get some traction when Euro drops under 1.0915 and really get the ball rolling under 1.0750.
Gold
I know the gold bugs are pretty excited about the recent advance in gold, but I can’t help but be skeptical of a forthcoming breakup to new highs above that of 2020. Last week, GC poked briefly above 2025.40, but dropped back under at the end of the week. Note the Wave 59 9-5 study exhaustion signal last week. First indication of a reversal is a drop under 1970.20.
S&P 500
Interesting that we have a doji candle in SPX last week. If SPX can close under 4083 this week, bears have a decent chance on putting pressure on the rising trend line later this month. If on the other hand, SPX spends much time above 4144 this week, the alternate count may come to the fore and have to allow for a push for 4232 to 4245.
Bitcoin Futures
Another week where BTC can’t get above the 28550 resistance. If the cycle on this chart is still active, bulls are nearly out of time to work higher. This cycle is similar to the longer cycle in SPX above and not far off from the cycles in DX and gold which all suggest lower into late summer.