Bonds
ZB bounced a little last week erasing some of the gains put in by bears in the prior weeks. I still like lower into one of the next timing points, either early July or late August.
Crude Oil
Crude stayed to plan last week by filling the open gap. Now we see if this wave will extend lower to 72.80 or 71.70. I did change the count on this weekly chart to come in line with my thinking that wave iv has already been set and now early in v of (c) of [ii].
Dollar Index
DX still trying to form a higher low. Bulls need DX to spend time above 101.80 and later 102.70.
Euro
Euro has a double top look to it thus far. There was some rejection of the prior high but not enough to drop under 1.0993. Bears begin to get the ball rolling under 1.0993 and begin to cause bulls pain under 1.0864.
Gold
Good news for the bearish forecast is that gold has spent several weeks under 2025.40. Only thing lacking is a break under 1920.20 to get confirmation of a reversal. Probably needs help from both bonds and DX to get the next leg started.
S&P 500
I may have given up on the lower high because of the inability to stay under 4083 last week, but I still think this is a large corrective formation that is pretty late in its development. Strictly speaking, the form is adequate at this point with a new high on the swing up from the March low. We might see some follow-through up to 4195 early in the week. Bulls no doubt have their eyes set on the gap fill back from last August around 4232.
E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures
I want to contrast the rise in SPX with that of the Russell 2000. Notice how weak it is in comparison, not even able to push past 1827 which is the 38% retrace of the last swing.
Bitcoin Futures
This is the third week BTC has bumped up against 30970 but failed to push through. Next inflection on this cycle past here is in August which corresponds with cycles in other assets that I’m penciling in for a low.