Bonds
Bonds have been consolidating just above the rising trend line across the low from last year and the March low from this year. I expect this support to fail shortly and the trend lower to continue so as to reach a new swing low under that of last year.
Crude Oil
Crude has been in a consolidation phase for the last six weeks but that may now be over and is starting the next leg down in ‘v of (c) of [ii]’. First target lower is at 62.90 though I prefer 55.30 if not near the prior wave (iv) low at 48.20.
Dollar Index
We had been expecting a minor retrace in DX and that appears to be kicking in. With the CPI, Fed, and ECB rate decisions, there will be plenty of catalysts this week that may set a wave ii low.
Euro
Same story but the inverse in Euro. First resistance at 1.0824 which coincides with the 20 period EMA, and if needed, the .618 retrace is at 1.0945.
Gold
Thinking gold is doing something similar to that of Euro, bouncing up to form a lower high. The .382 retrace of the high to the recent low is at 2007.20 and the .618 is at 2045.90.
S&P 500
I know there is plenty of reporting of the bear market being over, but I’m not convinced. SPX stalled last week up against the 62% retrace and test of the August high from last year. Note that the dominant cycles have an inflection at this time.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC was under pressure last week and was leaning hard on support at 26130. Once BTC begins to spend time under 26130, I think a retest of the low from last year will come into play later this year.