Bonds
ZB has been in a holding pattern for a month now as it tries to hold the ascending trend line. I still favor an eventual break lower so as to get a new low to the low last year.
Crude Oil
If the form for a possible fourth wave in crude manifests as a triangle, it may be close to complete. Any time spent under 68.10 could be the early stages of a wave v of an ending diagonal (c).
Dollar Index
DX firmed up last week and formed a doji candle. Promising set up for a wave ii low. Would be bulls need DX to recover 102.70 as a first step in reversing up.
Euro
Promising rejection of 1.1060 last week in Euro which occurred on a theoretical cycle high. Bears will feel better when Euro drops under the low of last week which corresponds to the weekly 20 EMA.
Gold
I wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce in gold before resuming lower. As I look at this weekly chart, I think I may be trying to count the lower time frames out too quickly. The drop down from the May high looks only be ‘[A] of a of ending diagonal [c]’.
S&P 500
I’m allowing for one more high in SPX but clearly very late in the game. Nice to see that the fast cycle agrees with my up into July 4th holiday hypothesis. That said, I prefer they not put much pressure on 4320 this week. If SPX starts to spend time under 4320, the odds that wave ‘c of (y) of [b]’ is already complete increase.
Bitcoin Futures
I think the recent rise in BTC lowers the odds that this is a wave (iv) and increases the chances that it may be the first wave up in a larger corrective pattern. That doesn’t mean that it is clear sailing for higher, a correction looks due, but less likely that any move lower will make a new swing low.