Bonds
The good news is that bonds bounced last week which is consistent with the lower time frame count which called for a bounce. The bad news is that I’m a little worried about a possible truncated low in (v) of [i]. My worry is compounded by the fact that the inflection from the cycle composite is proximate to the low. The next inflection is late in September. Net, late to be short, maybe a little early to be long.
Crude Oil
CL made a push for 77.50 last week before starting to fall away. There is certainly adequate complexity in the correction and looks commensurate in price and time to the wave ii and thus wave iv could be complete. First step for bears is to have CL spend time under prior resistance of 73.90.
Dollar Index
It was a tough week for DX as it dropped out of a consolidation to a new low. Yes, I have been wrong on trying to get prior supports to stick. However, I still think people are still too quick to write off DX as I’m sure that when equities correct again, DX will at a minimum bounce hard. In the short term, fair be cautious about catching a falling knife though I’m interested in the 99.50 to 99.10 area for support.
Euro
Euro surged to break over 1.1060 last week and is now nearing the far end of the Keltner channel. Resist at 1.1315 and 1.1440.
S&P 500
The dominant cycles in the S&P 500 now turn down into August. First objective for bears if there are any left, is to brin SPX back under 4378.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC made a brief poke past 30970 again but the general zone is proving to be tough.