Bonds
Very little movement in ZB last week. It is up against lower time frame resistance and likely bides time till the FOMC meeting this week. I’d like to see an eventual new low under that of last year though there is a chance that the low this month set a truncated low for wave (v). Net, it is pretty late to short with confidence but also might be a little early to go long.
Crude Oil
I now have to expect CL to hold up into the next cycle inflection which is in early August. Next resistance is at 79.00 followed by the more important 83.20. Looking at the CCI at the top of the chart, it is normal for a brief push back up into the green after so long in the red and for that to mark the fourth wave. A similar phenomenon but in reverse can be seen with the small excursion into the red back in December of 2021.
Dollar Index
Last week we saw a sharp drop out of a possible triangle into a low just above the 99.50 target. I think it likely that a reversal up is finally getting started though will be better when above 102.70. I still lean to this low being a [iv] though even if I’m wrong, we should expect a fairly deep retrace of the drop from October of last year.
Euro
Similar story in the Euro as DX but the inverse, a possible reversal down in the making. Nice to see an exhaustion signal from the Wave 59 9-5 study on the candle from last week. Bears need Euro to fall back under old resistance at 1.1060 for confirmation.
Gold
Gold is noticing the resistance at 1976.95 but hasn’t decisively rejected it as of yet. May see another test of 1.976.95 or 2002.20. A drop under the low of last week would be a positive sign for bears that a lower high has been set.
S&P 500
Some signs that SPX may finally be completing its advance from the March low and possibly the October low from last year as it poked above 4532 but fell back to nearly close on it. I think there are enough squiggles for the count to be complete but now we need to see some weakness kick in. I don’t like this, but it is possible that we have to wait till the next cycle inflection early next month for a reversal.
Bitcoin Futures
Well look at that. BTC is finally starting to fall away from 30970 after hugging it for several weeks. USD firming up should help the bears push BTC toward the lower end of the range.