The Week Ahead: 2023-07-30

Apple and Amazon earnings on Thursday, NFP on Friday

Bonds

Overall fairly happy with the way bonds are behaving. Might see another week or so of sideways before pushing lower to an eventual new low under that of last year in the next two or three months.

On track for an eventual new low under that of last year

Crude Oil

Crud is following the dominant cycles higher but keep in mind that they crest anytime between now and the end of August. As I mentioned last week and is annotated on the chart, the CCI turning positive after spending so much time under zero is not at all unusual for a fourth wave.

Late in a iv?

Dollar Index

Promising push up in DX is making it look like the recent low may last. DX bulls feel better after DX pushes up over 102.70. I think a push over 102.70 will likely coincide with softening in the equity markets.

Promising reversal

Euro

It is looking like Euro is reversing but need a little lower to feel good about it. Bears need Euro under 1.1060 and the weekly 20 EMA which is at the low last week.

Need a little lower for confirmation of a reversal

Gold

Gold leaned on some support at 1976.95 last week. I would like that support to fail this week or next as it works lower in the early stages of wave (v) of ending diagonal [c].

Need under 1976.95 to get the next leg down started

S&P 500

Might get a minor new swing high this week or next to coincide with the next cycle inflection but I think it very, very late in development of the advance from the March low. A drop under 4532 would be first confirmation that at a minimum a retrace is starting.

Late in [b]

Bitcoin Futures

BTC dropped a bit from 30970 last week but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was retested before falling away with greater force.

Trying to get wave (v) down started