Bonds
ZB pushed up over the first major retrace of drop from the 2020 high to the recent low at 117^01 which strengthens the case for the low for [i or a] being set. The next composite cycle inflection is this week. My hypothesis is that we see bonds retrace soon to form a higher low over the next few months.
Crude Oil
My initial thoughts were that the (c) wave of [ii] in crude oil would manifest as an ending diagonal but it looks like it is taking the path of a conventional impulse. I’m expecting a new low under the low from mid-November to complete wave i of (c) of [ii]. Some Gann related targets at 70.10 and 67.20.
Dollar Index
DX put in a promising reversal candle last week when it spiked under 103.47 before recovering it later in the week. As I have mentioned before, the wave (iv) hypothesis is still valid though this pullback is deeper than what is typical for a fourth. If not a fourth, this retrace is likely some degree of two. I think there is a good chance the retrace is complete but fair to wait till 104.15 is recovered for better proof.
Euro
Same idea as above in DX but the inverse. 1.1031 was tested and rejected. For proof of a reversal taking place, bears need a drop under 1.0800 which corresponds to the 20 period EMA.
Gold
This is probably my most controversial outlook and I could always be wrong, but I remain skeptical that gold is breaking up but instead think it is close to reversing lower. I’m provisionally calling this high a ‘b of (v)’ in an ending diagonal but you could argue that wave (iv) should be moved over to this swing high.
S&P 500
Just about out of runway for a lower high to that of late July, but even if we do get a new high to that, I think it is relatively short lived. Notice we are at a projected cycle high now.
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
On this chart, you can see what the alternate count I’m following is if we get another high over that of July in the major equity indices.
Bitcoin Futures
The crypto enthusiasts are excited with the break up over 39020 though I am still skeptical but perhaps with less confidence than I have in gold.