Bonds
A bit of a poke up through 119^23 last week but did fall back under it. The candle left indicates indecision at a cycle inflection point. My thesis is a retrace is due prior to an eventual push into 126^24 or 136^16 in spring of next year.
Crude Oil
CL pushed down into the 70.10 support zone last week. At this time frame, we can see five waves down from the (b) wave high so may very well have the wave ‘i of (c)’ set. On lower time frames, I can make a case for a minor new low, but I wouldn’t try to short at this point, instead should be looking for a bounce.
Dollar Index
Starting to look like a reversal up in DX is getting started but would be better to see a base build above 104.15 for confirmation.
Euro
Nice to see Euro drop back under the 20 period EMA last week. Might get a minor bounce but in general should now trend lower toward at least 1.0265.
Gold
So far the forecast for a reversal down in gold is working out. Aside from a minor bounce, expect gold to trend lower for several months.
S&P 500
SPX poked to a new high over that of the July high by a couple of points last week invalidating the wave (ii) idea. That doesn’t mean that I think the market is going to skyrocket up from here. I still think this is much nearer to an end than a beginning. Either the market tops out around here or holds up into the next inflection in early January.
Dow Industrials
I’m posting this chart to illustrate a little different way to count the advance up off of the low from just over a year ago though it has the same implications, just a clearer form in the Dow. Could we see a retest of the 2022 high? Possible but not mandatory.
E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
Here we have the count that I’m using in the S&P 500 but a clearer wave form. I’m counting the rise up from the March low as a five where we are now late in [V]. So far, NQ has not made a new high over that of late July but is close.
E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures
Well, might as well include the R2K chart to round out the major indices. R2K is now up into the typical wave (ii) retracement area is starting to stall against 1907, the 62% retracement of the last swing.
Bitcoin Futures
The crypto crowd is pretty enthusiastic about Bitcoin at this point and are expecting new all-time highs to be achieved on this leg up. I however think they may be a little early as this could easily just be a bounce from the 2022 low. That said, too aggressive to attempt a fade prior to at least break back under 39020.