Bonds
ZB put in a red candle last week which might be the start of the expected move down in a (b) wave for month or two. On lower time frames I can make a case for one more try at testing 126^18 but the current swing high could enough. As in many markets, I think we will have to see how it looks around middle of the week as people get settled back in from their holiday time off.
Crude Oil
Crude has been moving sideways for about a month making this the longest consolidation in time since the swing high from last year. I’m penciling this in as a wave ii of (c) in development. I’m leaning to giving it a chance to bounce a bit more before dropping in wave iii.
Dollar Index
I was thinking about changing my count in DX but I’m going to stick with what I have here, that we should at a minimum see a deep retrace up for a lower high but prefer an eventual new high above the high in 2022. First hurdle for bulls is to recover 103.37 and base above it.
Euro
Same basic idea as DX above in Euro but the inverse. There was a promising rejection of 1.1100 at the end of last year after a brief poke above. Next thing to look for is a break under the 20 period EMA which was tested last week at 1.0900 followed by a drop under 1.0784.
Gold
And now for my most contrarian forecast, as I argue for gold falling, not rising, over the next several months. Next confirmation that a reversal lower is taking place is to see GC drop under 2027.80. Under 1983.00 should cause bulls to cover and cause gold to accelerate lower.
S&P 500
SPX has thus far remained under the 2022 high which I certainly approve of but not critical to my wave count. I wouldn’t be surprised by an attempt early this week to reverse some of the drop from last week but am interested in seeing if selling resumes by the middle or end of the week from a lower high. A drop under 4680 is an early blow to bulls and invites an attempt to push lower to 4556.
Bitcoin Futures
A doji with a fairly wide range set last week in BTC futures. The hype over Bitcoin ETF’s being approved might hold it up but I’m inclined to see it as a ‘sell the news’ type of event. A drop under 42800 would be an early blow to the crypto bulls but need under 39020 to really feel good about a reversal lower.