Bonds
Not clear if wave (a) is complete as on lower time frames you can make a case for one more minor swing high.
Crude Oil
So far, CL has moved sideways for a month. I have been expecting a little higher in the wave ii correction but I’m not sure it is going to happen at this point.
Dollar Index
DX appears to be forming a higher low to the December low and gaining energy to grind up through 103.37.
Euro
While I like lower, the 20 period EMA is holding the Euro up for now. Are they going to wait till the next cycle inflection in the first week of February?
Gold
GC holding 2027.80 last week is a negative for the immediately bearish case. I’m moving the alternate [iv] over to the October low. If GC does push past 2150, I’ll treat any new high over the 2020 high as wave [v] and expect a deep three wave retracement to follow over the next couple of years. Ironically, a new GC high may be more damaging to the gold bulls in the medium term than my primary count.
S&P 500
I’m not really crazy about chasing SPX up, but it looks like it probably will take out the 2022 high. I’ll be watching for a poke and reverse back under 4778 as an early warning sign of trouble for bulls.
Russell 2000 futures
Checking in on the Russell 2000, we see it is not doing well after the test of 2074 which might have been the (c) of [b] high.
Dow Industrials
The Dow is slowing against the bottom of the next target range for [b] at 37930 to 38010. The next composite inflection is this week.
Bitcoin Futures
I remain pretty skeptical about the recent BTC rally. The news of ETF’s being approved has the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ feel to it.
A brief publishing note: Monday is a US holiday where the equity market will have an early close. I don’t plan to write anything on Monday. Regular schedule resumes on Tuesday.