The Week Ahead: 2024-02-11

CPI and Retail Sales this week

Bonds

ZB erased the gains of the prior week. I think it fair to assume that bonds are moving lower in ‘c of (b)’. I’m assuming (b) will manifest as a higher low to that of last October though that isn’t a requirement.

On plan moving lower in (b)

Crude Oil

I have previously thought that any bounce would form a lower high to that of two weeks ago but I’m not sure about that now. I can’t rule out wave two becoming more complex which will drive CL over 77.80 before turning down in three.

Not sure the lower high will hold

Dollar Index

Overall pretty happy with how DX is performing. There may be a small consolidation before higher but shouldn’t fight against a grind up.

Expect a grind higher

Euro

Basically same thing happening in Euro as DX but in the opposite direction. Might get a small bounce, maybe to retest the 20 period EMA around 1.0890 before grinding lower.

Aside from a slight bounce, expect lower

Gold

Gold is being stubborn as it remains stuck between 2072.60 and 2027.80. I favor lower but don’t know when it will kick in.

Expect lower eventually

S&P 500

SPX fell back to retest old resistance now support at 4916 last week but sprung back and pushed to yet another high. The Wave 59 9-5 exhaustion study will have a signal on the next candle that makes a high over that of last week. Next resistance is at 5041 which is just over the high from last week.

Late in (c) of [b]

Bitcoin Futures

The rally up from 39020 has been pretty strong. I can’t rule out a retest of 49950 or even a late push to 52040 prior to push down in [c].

Late in [b]