Bonds
Nice drop in bonds last week as it dropped back to near where it was three weeks ago. I’m not sure whether is ZB is continue lower now or continue to chop sideways for another week or two, but I do think the retrace is still too shallow to be a completed (b) wave. I’ve moved forward the cycle analysis forward a little as it seemed to be drifting off. Since that adjustment, we see that the composite better matches the (a) wave high at the end of last year and implies the next major inflection to be about a month out from now. As of now, I’m assuming that next inflection is a low but could turn into a high in ‘b of (b)’.
Crude Oil
I’ve been thinking that the (b) wave high in crude was in September of last year, however, that high may only be ‘a of (b)’ which would allow for crude to bounce higher than it would in a wave ii. I add the alternate here as I begin to wonder if that April timing that we see in bonds may also become important here. Note that the shorter cycle in CL has an inflection in early April. If CL pushes past 82.20, the odds of the alternate count playing out increases.
Dollar Index
DX had a tough week last week, but I’m not too concerned about it looks like a correction to me. You may see a theme developing though, where I’m becoming pretty interested in an early to mid-April inflection point. I wonder if we get DX to surge a bit now but come back and use the April timing for a higher low.
Euro
Running with the emerging theme, what if we have to wait two or three weeks before Euro is really ready to break lower?
Gold
For gold, I’m going to repost the monthly chart where I posit that everything post 2016 is just a complex corrective formation instead of the big break to new highs that bulls are expecting. Notice how the long-term cycle is cresting.
Bitcoin Futures
I do think BTC is working on the last elements of a formation that ends in tears, but not sure a reversal has started. BTC futures are short of targets at 77740 and 79310. I’m inclined to give bulls the benefit of the doubt while above 61660.
S&P 500
Last week was basically sideways in the S&P 500. You will notice that early April also shows up in the cycle here. I wonder if they find a way to keep the wheels on for another two or three weeks before really rolling over.