The Week Ahead: 2024-05-19
Nvidia earnings and FOMC minutes
Bonds
ZB did well last week but is running into some resistance at 117^26 and the top of the channel. That area is what will need to be overcome to confirm that wave (b) is complete and that a reversal up in (c) has started. Short-term, I expect sideways to modestly lower to form a higher low.
Crude Oil
Crude spent last week rising in what looks to me an effort to form a lower high to that of early April. We could easily see another few weeks of bounce as that lower high develops.
Dollar Index
DX has been working on the expected retrace and may now be late in said retrace. Will see if DX and base against 103.88 and 103.18 which is essentially a retrace to retest the broken descending trendline.
Euro
I expect much of the same in Euro as DX but inverted. Euro appears to be bouncing to retest a broken trendline. At initial resistance now at 1.0911 with next at 1.0985. Bears get confirmation of a reversal lower when Euro pushes down under 1.0805.
Gold
I had been marking the early April high as the high of wave [III] but I now think I jumped the gun and that wave [III] is still being worked on. Next target based on square of nine levels is at 2478.50 though for wave development, any new high over that of last April is good enough.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 did make a fresh high last week. I think this high that is developing is a wave is lower degree third wave counting up from the last major correction in April and thus should be due for a lower degree fourth before pushing to a final high in (c) of [b]. The next major cycle inflection is in mid to late June so will be watching that area in time for the (c) of [b] high.
Bitcoin Futures
Nice bounce in BTC futures from the must hold support at 57140. Now looking for a rise into the 77740 or 79310 targets over the next month or two.
