The Week Ahead: 2024-06-16
US holiday midweek
Bonds
A nice move up in bonds last week which probably means a low degree third is probably underway. I know that I was looking for a minor correction on lower time frames, but I will probably need to rethink that idea. Next cycle inflection is middle of July and thus imagine bonds trend up till then.
Crude Oil
The expected bounce in CL made some progress last week. The next cycle inflection here is similar to that in bonds, the first or second week of July which I will be watching for a lower high.
Dollar Index
DX closing last week above 104.92 is a positive and likely means the retrace is over and early in the next swing up.
Euro
The push down away from the 20 period EMA is a positive for the bearish case and probably confirms that a third wave down has started. Next hurdle for bears is to push down through 1.0748.
Gold
A mild positive for the bullish case in gold as it attempts to base against 2303.70 but bulls need to get to work and push GC up over 2369.60 to confirm a wave [V] up. Can things go wrong for bulls? Yes, my confidence in higher isn’t very high.
S&P 500
SPX had a strong week last week but note that it is now up at the top of a channel with negative divergence on the CCI and the Wave 59 9-5 study will print an exhaustion signal on the open of the next candle. I’m open to a little higher but we are getting to a point where things start to go wrong for bulls.
Bitcoin Futures
I’m getting cold feet here in BTC as I start to worry that it might fail to push to the overhead targets. Probably too early to fade but not the easy long it was a month ago.
