The Week Ahead: 2024-06-23
Last week of the 2nd quarter
Bonds
Interesting to see how ZB is pausing at a minor channel harmonic though I think it only a minor speed bump on the way higher. I’m assuming net higher into the middle of next month before any retrace and expect that to be mild.
Crude Oil
There is also some timing around the middle of next month in crude which I expect to be a lower high. CL is now against initial resistance at 80.70 but might add a few handles over the next few weeks though not mandatory.
Dollar Index
DX above 104.92 is a positive and should allow for a push to test and surpass the last swing high around 106.25.
Euro
Euro hugged the 1.0748 area last week. I would think bears should make a push to break it this week and likely make a new swing low under the low from April. The next goal for bears will be to aim for the low from last year around 1.0607.
Gold
Gold made a run at 2369.60 last week but failed to punch through. Perhaps gold bulls will have better luck at breaking over 2369.60 this week.
S&P 500
SPX did make a new high last week but higher is not a sure thing from this point. Note that we now have divergence present with an exhaustion signal from the Wave 59 9-5 study while at the top of a channel and at the start of an inflection window. On lower time frames, I prefer another high but in the bigger picture, I bad things can start to happen.
Bitcoin Futures
While true that BTC futures are not in serious trouble till under 57140, I have to say I’m disappointed with the failure to poke to a new high after the last test of support in May. With this latest drop, the odds of this being a wave iv are going down.
