The Week Ahead: 2024-06-30
Holiday shortened week
Bonds
ZB fell back last week from a test of the channel harmonic. I wonder if we now see a small consolidation to retest the breakout of the main channel. I’m assuming the next cycle inflection, the week of the 12th, will be a low in bonds.
Crude Oil
Primary view is that the (b) wave high was set at the April high and that we should see a lower high form in the next couple of weeks. The alternative is y of (b) is still in development which would allow CL to test or slightly exceed the April high.
Dollar Index
DX is pausing just under the last swing high from May. I’m not expecting too much of a retrace, rather sideways to slow grind higher.
Euro
After leaning into support at 1.0748 for three weeks and not able punch through, the Euro is now bouncing. Probably should assume a test of the 20 EMA around 1.0843 relatively soon.
Gold
A dragonfly doji last week after testing support at 2303.70 is a positive. Now bulls need to see gold push up through 2369.60 to feel good about prospects for a new high.
S&P 500
Based off lower time frame charts, I’m allowing for a bit higher in the S&P 500, but it is getting pretty dicey and can’t really recommend it other than for those that are keeping a close watch on the markets. That said, it is probably too early to fade with confidence, better to wait for some evidence of a reversal. The negative divergence on the CCI and the Wave 59 9-5 study point to a high in development.
Bitcoin Futures
I have a small bias to another high in BTC futures as long as 57140 holds as support. The consolidation that has taken place this year is starting to get a little large though isn’t breaking the primary rule which is not overlapping with wave ‘i’.
