The Week Ahead: 2024-07-07
Powell testimony Tuesday and Wednesday, CPI on Thursday
Bonds
ZB had a convincing push up from 115^31 last week but might need to consolidate the gain this coming week before breaking up over the next channel harmonic which has up to now been resistance. The next major cycle inflection is in early September, and I expect bonds to trend higher into that point.
Crude Oil
CL was up last week but I think it too late to think about trading long but probably need some confirmation before being shorting. CL dropping back under 80.70 would be the first evidence that wave (b) is complete.
Dollar Index
I’m now looking for DX to make a higher low against the low from June which was just above 103.88.
Euro
Likewise, will look for a lower high to develop in Euro against the high in early June.
Gold
Gold had a nice move up last week. Now we see if bulls can keep at it and press to push past 54422.70.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 made a decent advance last week. The next overhead resistance at 5578 though I prefer the higher target of 5625 to 5633.
Bitcoin Futures
Tricky position here in BTC as price slipped under 57140 last week before recovering. Technically this could still be a wave iv but the size is disconcerting. The drop from the high this year could easily be a leading diagonal down, but the form up from the 2022 low isn’t ideal. I suppose we will allow for a bounce and be on the lookout for the potential for a lower high.
