The Week Ahead: 2024-07-14
Fed speakers throughout the week, ECB on Thursday
Bonds
Bonds had a good week last week as they are near prior swing highs. I expect a push up over those highs on to new highs in the next couple of months to the next cycle inflection point in early September.
Crude Oil
CL put in a down candle last week but is thus far trapped between 83.50 and 80.70. I don’t think higher is required but may be able to sneak in one more high based on lower time frames. Net, too late to chase up, maybe a little early to fade while above 80.70.
Dollar Index
DX has been soft, but I remain bullish longer term. Looks like DX still has business with a retest of the broken downward trend line. As to cycles, there is a window that stretches between now and early August.
Euro
Euro did pop over the 20 period EMA last week, but I think it will be a short-lived excursion. As I have mentioned previously, this feels like a higher wave two in development, either ii or (ii).
Gold
Gold is on plan thus far rising out of the low from about a month ago. Ideally, we get a new high near 2500.00 but I can live with anything over the weekly open from late May around 2477.00.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 will have an exhaustion signal from the Wave 59 9-5 study if SPX makes a new high this week. I have been doing my best to not let my long-term bearish bias affect my short-term forecast, but it is very difficult at this point. There are many that are expecting the market to hold up late into later in the year but I’m worried that we end up with a high made around here to maybe early August.
Bitcoin Futures
BTC is showing signs of life as the recent drop is recovered though I’m not near as confident in a new high as I was month ago. I think it worthwhile to entertain the possibility of a lower high around 66070 or 69450 in the next few weeks.
