The Week Ahead: 2024-07-28
A big week with earnings and the FOMC
Bonds
Bonds made a drop last week but bounced right back after a test of the 117^26 support. I still think this is just the early stages of an eventual push up in ‘(c) of [ii or b]’.
Crude Oil
Crude was lower last week but is dithering around 77.35. On this time frame, I can’t say conclusively that the (b) wave high is in though CL is only one more swing down away on lower time frames to achieving a five wave count down from the July high. I’m expecting another push down and then allowing for a bounce in a wave two that will form a lower high before accelerating lower in a third of (c) later this year.
Dollar Index
DX didn’t move much last week as it probed the 103.88 support and closed above it. While I would like to see DX move up, I can’t rule out a test of lower support at 103.18 first. Imagine we will have to wait till the FOMC meeting to see some movement.
Euro
Like DX, little to talk about in Euro as it is still largely moving sideways in a range. Ideally, we see Euro begin to push down away from 1.0911 and the 20 period EMA late this week.
Gold
My primary hypothesis is that a fairly major high has been set in gold and that aside from a bounce that looks due on lower time frames to expect a trend lower to develop over the next several months.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 has leaned pretty hard on initial support at 5477 this last week but is above where I’m putting the line in the sand for a reversal at 5356. Is the high set? Not clear. Dow and Russell 2000 are holding up well whereas the Nasdaq 100 is weak. We might be at a point where we see intermarket divergences such that Dow, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 make new highs and Nasdaq 100 a lower high. I think a bounce for either a new swing high or lower high is pretty close. This week will no doubt be important.
Bitcoin Futures
The primary hypothesis for a new swing high is BTC futures is looking pretty good as the move up from the July low is acting pretty impulsive.
