The Week Ahead: 2024-08-18
Powell speaks at the end of the week
Bonds
Bonds have slipped back slightly last week and have formed a inside candle to that of the week before. This is consistent with the forecast of ZB holding up and stretching higher past that of the early August high before a slightly lengthier consolidation.
Crude Oil
As I had started writing about during last week, I have changed my mind as to ‘y of (b)’ being finished, instead, I know think it is probably still in development. The alternate is that ‘(b)’ completed back in April and everything post June is a wave two correction. Both scenarios are similar other than the former allows more of a bounce, even a retest or minor new high over the April high.
Dollar Index
The DX decline over the past three weeks is more than I expected but I still like this as a corrective formation that should have an upside resolution when complete.
Euro
Same idea as DX here in Euro, that this is a large consolidation late in development. Notice that the composite cycle has an inflection the end of this month.
Gold
As I have been mentioning last week my posts, gold was due to push to a new swing high and finally had it take place last Friday. Could get a bit of follow-through to tap 2572.60 but be careful as form is now complete. I think this will be a pretty significant high that will result in at a minimum a deep retrace. First sign of a reversal will be gold spending time under 2522.15 and better when under 2472.20.
S&P 500
Quite the advance last week in the S&P 500. I have been expecting some consolidation on lower time frames and continue to do so but expect a new swing high to be made late this month or early next. I think the narrative is that the FOMC will begin cutting rates at the next meeting which will save the markets from any dire consequences. I of course have a contrarian view and that the rumor of rate cuts was a buy, and that the actual rate cut will be a sell.
Bitcoin Futures
Unlike the equity indices, BTC is looking more like it is working on a lower high to the high made in March but in a similar timing window of late August or early September.
