The Week Ahead: 2024-08-25
Nvidia earnings this week
Bonds
Bonds continue to work to plan as they continue to hold and creep higher. I think there should be a new swing high over 126^27 prior to the next consolidation. Said another way, I think the next high is wave ‘iii of (c)’.
Crude Oil
On further reflection last week, I decided that I was too quick to give up on the idea that the ‘(b)’ wave was already set though from a practical standpoint both counts are very similar other than the now alternate would allow a retest of 83.50 if not a bit higher but I’m leaning to a lower high, hence the primary.
Dollar Index
DX has been weaker than I had previously expected but I don’t think anything is wrong in the bigger picture as it still looks like a large corrective formation. The last time the adaptive CCI was this low coincided with the 2023 low. If DX fails to bounce in the next few weeks, I will have to assume it remains under pressure to early October which would probably also mean the equity rally manages to hang on till then as well.
Euro
Euro hasn’t been as strong as DX would suggest as it has not retraced as deeply. Also, the composite cycle has an inflection this week with the Wave 59 9-5 exhaustion study just one candle off of a signal.
Gold
Gold did make a new high last week but into the next target of 2572.60 and leaving negative divergence on the CCI. The aggressive trader may start to dip a toe into a short position while a more cautious trader will wait for GC to drop back under 2522.15 as initial evidence of a reversal.
S&P 500
Not much to add to what I mentioned last week that we should get a minor new high late this month or early next month. I’ll be watching for a retest or new high early in the week ahead of Nvidia earnings.
Bitcoin Futures
Will be watching for a lower high to form in BTC over the next few weeks against 66960 or 70520.
