The Week Ahead: 2024-09-08
CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday
Bonds
Bonds are on plan and are just short of making a new swing high to that of early August. After we get a new high, I expect another consolidation prior to the final push up into a ‘(c) of [ii or b] early next year.
Crude Oil
On one hand, I’m pleased with the crude decline, but I have been wondering about the timing. Could there be yet another attempt at a rally into late in the year before really rolling down in a third? I think so. Yes, I think a recession is near and that will be a weight on oil prices, but has it started? Cycles are suggesting a low nearby and while they can invert or even be ignored at times, I’m doing my very best to curb my big picture bearish view and give oil and the equity indices a chance to bounce yet again.
Dollar Index
DX has been basing for the last couple of weeks. As I have mentioned over the past week or so, it is possible that DX needs another low depending on where you start the current decline. Given my current thinking that equities and crude may avoid catastrophe for another month or three, perhaps DX chops sideways to slightly lower into October prior to a reversal up.
Euro
The implication of the above in DX is that the Euro holds 1.0945 and attempts to hold up and attempt to test 1.1261 later this year.
Gold
The lower time frames in gold would look better with one more high to complete a five-wave structure up from the June low. Under 2472.20 would mean the gold correction has started.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 certainly took it on the chin last week. Does this mean the high is in? I think the market is terribly overvalued and that a deep correction is certainly due, but I don’t know that it has started. I do think we could see a little continuation lower early this week but will be watching the 5316 level to see if it holds on say Tuesday or Wednesday.
Bitcoin Futures
I do think that the BTC high has been set but I do think that the wave (ii) becomes more complex. Specifically, I’m treating the move down from late August as a ‘b of (ii)’ which implies a ‘c of (ii)’ up into late October or early November.
