The Week Ahead: 2024-10-19
Gold on new highs
Bonds
Interesting that ZB is attempting to hold at 119^21 which is the first target for a ‘c of (b)’. The RSI at the top of the chart is near a low. I’d like this area to hold but it wouldn’t be damaging to the overall count if ZB moved to a lower target.
Crude Oil
Nice move down in crude last week. I assume there will be a little follow-through this week, perhaps to the 66 handle, but probably nearing a bounce prior to the next major thrust lower.
Dollar Index
DX advanced again last week but I think it best to assume a consolidation or minor retrace prior to pushing past 104.00.
Euro
The RSI at the top of the weekly Euro chart suggests an oversold condition at the present. I think it prudent to allow for a bounce or consolidation that could either result in price bouncing into the 20 EMA overhead or running sideways allowing for the 20 EMA to come down to meet price.
Gold
We had been looking for a new high in gold and got it last week. It might drift a bit higher on the momentum up test 2756.00 but not required. A move back under 2727.60 is a warning that a high could be set and under 2651.80 is initial confirmation of reversal.
S&P 500
SPX advanced last week but I continue to think it very late in the advance and not an environment that is conducive to being quick to buy a pullback. Very first sign of trouble will be a drop under 5789, a more important line in the sand at 5660.
Dow
Since I have it handy, might as well look at the Dow. Dow has made tiny poke over Gann related target of 43180. Next target is an (a) wave to (c) relationship at 43615.
Nasdaq 100 Futures
I bring up NQ because it is interesting that we still have a lower high in the Nasdaq 100 which could be an important intermarket divergence and thus a sign that not all is well.
Bitcoin Futures
With the punch over 66960, we should assume a push for 70520 this week for a ‘c of (ii)’ candidate.
