The Week Ahead: 2024-10-27
Big earnings week
Bonds
Bonds fell through the prior support at 119^21 to test the next ‘c of (b)’ target at 117^24 last week. On a lower time frame, it looks like a five wave move down from the September high which is what we want for a ‘c’ wave. I still like the chances for a reversal up from this area.
Crude Oil
I still like the idea for a little lower so as to see a five wave move down from the October high for the first impulse down from wave ii. Will be looking for a retest of the 66.40 to 65.00 area prior to the next bounce or consolidation.
Dollar Index
On one hand, I’m pleased that DX is on plan with the big picture plan, but I would like to see a minor consolidation so as to fuel the next stages of the rise. I would expect DX to slow as the CCI, top of chart, reaches the zero line.
Euro
Like DX, I am pleased that the overall big picture plan is working out but in the short-term, prefer a bit of a bounce prior to the next major push down.
Gold
Gold is the energizer bunny as it just keeps going. I still think this is relatively late in an extended [V] up from the last major consolidation from June. On lower time frames, it looks like there could be at least one small consolidation and new high before completing the wave form. Next Gann related target up is at 2808.60.
S&P 500
SPX slipped a little last week but on lower time frames, I can make a case for a minor new high. The problem is we are extremely late in the count and sometimes you don’t get the last move. Plenty of possible catalysts for a reversal over the next couple of weeks. Net, be careful. Probably too aggressive to sell without a break but too late to be reckless in buying.
Nasdaq 100 Futures
I might point out again that NQ is still on a lower high. I see this as negative intermarket divergence. I suppose a bull will say that NQ will break to a new high and propel the S&P 500 higher.
Bitcoin Futures
Also note that BTC is not on new highs unlike gold. I still think there is a good chance that a lower high is developing though that being above 68365 is a minor positive in the short-term that invites a test of 71930.
