The Week Ahead: 2024-11-17

We will see if the equity indices bou

Bonds

Bonds are trying to firm up, but I wouldn’t be shocked if ZB put a little more pressure on 114^21 before turning up in (c).

At or near a wave (b) low

Crude Oil

While it is possible that the next expected lower high has been set, I’m inclined to give it some more time to develop.

Still waiting for the next lower high

Dollar Index

DX has been on fire and as you know, I expect much more from it next year but would like a modest consolidation to gain energy for the next major push up. Right now, DX is just under the October high from last year.

Want to buy after a consolidation

Euro

I have been wrong for the last few weeks here as well, expecting a bounce prior to touching the Keltner channel but here we are at the first band. I still like a bounce. I know, a broken clock, et cetera, but the RSI is deep into oversold and at the edge of a band and at a cycle inflection point. The next inflection point is in early January so perhaps a consolidation into early next year. Not expecting a sharp bounce though possible. Thinking more like a bounce to retest the area of the last major swing low, roughly the 1.0700 to 1.0787.

Allowing for a bounce

Gold

Prior to last week, I was open to the possibility of yet another high in gold, but the forceful move last week has me raising the likelihood of the major swing high being set and now any move up will be to set a lower high. Is a new high impossible? No, technically there hasn’t been enough overlap to rule that out, but odds of a new high have gone down considerably. A typical deep retracement range would be around 2704.05 to 2737.90.

Now thinking lower high

S&P 500

The last few months have been an exercise in keeping my big picture bearishness in control and allowing for the S&P 500 to climb a bit more. Is the high finally in? A definite maybe but too early to know for certain. While above 5780, continuation higher is certainly possible. Once under 5780, the final nail isn’t put in till price breaks under 5306. I’m thinking a bounce attempt this week after which we see what it looks like on lower time frames.

A candidate for a high

Bitcoin Futures

The crypto crowd is exuberant and that gives me some pause about turning all out bearish in the equity markets, especially Nasdaq as I think Bitcoin and its kin are largely a speculative tech asset. With BTC futures pushing though the early targets for a (b) wave, I have to give BTC a chance to test 96370 or even 107180 while above 84540.

Late in (b)?