The Week Ahead: 2024-12-29

Another shortened week

Bonds

ZB drifted lower last week to just above the low from April. I wouldn’t be surprised by a drop under that to around 111^26. As you know, I’m counting the drop from the September high as [I]-[II]-[III]-[IV]-now late in [V] of c of (b).

Late in (b)

Crude Oil

Crude didn’t do much last week but did close near the top of the recent range. Best to allow for a poke over the range CL has been stuck in for the past two months though I do think it will be short lived.

Still working on a lower high

Dollar Index

DX is stalling under 108.50. I still prefer a minor retrace prior to starting the next major leg up but so far DX has been reluctant to do so. The longer DX stays above 107.44, the more likely I am wrong and just need to learn to live with a steady grind up.

Lean to a stall prior to higher

Euro

Same idea here as DX but the inverse, I think a bounce is overdue in this case, but I am lowering my expectations about how deep it will be.

Expect a modest retrace up prior to lower

Gold

I thought gold would bounce a little on lower time frames but is acting pretty weak. A drop under 2601.25 can start a cascade lower to at least 2503.70 and probably much lower.

Acting like it is ready to move lower

S&P 500

SPX put in a decent bounce last week but had a setback on Friday. Is the high in? Honestly, I don’t know. I’m open to a choppy move to retest the high or make a new high mostly to allow for a buy the rumor sell the news type setup with the presidential inauguration next month but not required. Bears need SPX under 5814 to get something started.

Very late in the game

Bitcoin Futures

There is a three-drive type pattern in BTC and while often good for a trade, it isn’t a significant reversal signal in my view and thus I’m open to another try at a high but as I have stated over an over again in the equity indices, it is late in the game.

Allowing for another try at a high